Does Dark Ariados (1st Edition) have positive grading EV?

Based on current pricing, our model estimates a negative grading EV of $-22.21 for Dark Ariados (1st Edition) — grading costs currently exceed the estimated PSA-10 premium. This is a model estimate based on historical data, not investment advice.

What is the estimated grading EV for Dark Ariados (1st Edition)?

Our model estimates approximately -56% return after grading costs, based on historical grade distributions and recent sold comps. Raw price: $18.01, estimated grading cost: ~$22.00, estimated EV: $-22.21. Estimates are informational, not investment advice; trading cards are not securities.

Should You Grade Dark Ariados (1st Edition)?

Neo Destiny · #17

Expected-value figures are estimates based on historical grade distributions and market prices. Not a recommendation. Grading outcomes and market prices are not guaranteed. Methodology · Full disclaimer

Estimated grading EV negative

Current grading costs exceed model estimate of PSA 10 premium

Expected Value

Raw price$18.01

Grading cost~$22.00

Blended EV$-4.20

Estimated profit$-22.21

Estimated return-56%

Break-even sell price$-1.72

Profit by Grade

PSA 7 $9.50 $-30.51 (-76%)

PSA 8 $26.28 $-13.73 (-34%)