Should You Grade Gambler (1st Edition)?
Fossil · #60
Expected-value figures are estimates based on historical grade distributions and market prices. Not a recommendation. Grading outcomes and market prices are not guaranteed.
Methodology
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Estimated grading EV negative
Current grading costs exceed model estimate of PSA 10 premium
Expected Value
Raw price$7.30
Grading cost~$22.00
Blended EV$10.92
Estimated profit$3.62
Estimated return12%
Break-even sell price$29.20
Profit by Grade
PSA 6
$15.60
$-13.70 (-47%)
PSA 8
$36.72
+$7.42 (25%)
PSA 9
$69.17
+$39.87 (136%)
PSA 10
$436.25
+$406.95 (1389%)
Undervalued
This card is undervalued by 50% — grading EV is $10.92 vs $7.30 raw.
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